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eBook details

• Title: Analysis and Prediction of Long Period Precipitation in New Jersey Using Statistical Methods.
• Author : Bulletin of the New Jersey Academy of Science
• Release Date : January 22, 2005
• Genre: Engineering,Books,Professional & Technical,
• Pages : * pages
• Size : 192 KB

Description

ABSTRACT: Dry periods are studied using the long precipitation record of the three New Jersey Climatic Divisions (CDs) from the period 1895 to 2003. This entails first determining which three-month periods were in the driest 20% using all similar calendar months, then determining the beginning and ending month of an extended dry period using a scheme described in Harnack and Small (2002). After the identification stage, dry period characteristics such as average length, longest length, and average time between prolonged dry periods were assessed. In each CD there are 60-63 dry periods in the sample record, with close to 50% of short duration (i.e., 6 months or less). The average dry period length is 9-10 months, as is the average time period between dry periods (i.e., average non-dry periods length). It is clear that the beginning (i.e., 1900s) and recent decades (1970s to 1990s) have been relatively wet, while the 1910s, 1930s, and 1960s have been relatively dry. In addition, available published data of antecedent circulation and sea surface temperature indices were used with New Jersey seasonal precipitation data to compute simple correlation statistics. The correlations, though no greater than about 0.50, were large enough to encourage prediction trials. The trials included the use of various indices as predictors in regression models for the purpose of determining the forecast skill level of one-season lead seasonal precipitation forecasts for New Jersey. Based on a small sample of independent test forecasts (i.e., 10 cases) for selected regression models, the number correct was not large enough, in general, to distinguish its performance from random chance and persistence. There may still be some utility in their use, but this was not pursued here. KEY WORDS: New Jersey climate, New Jersey drought, New Jersey precipitation, seasonal precipitation forecasting

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